A market for IP addresses

IP addresses face exhaustion, at the least those under the standard IPv4 format, and by some reports they should have been all used up already. What has helped delay the inevitable is probably the fact that there is now a market for IP addresses, yet it is not clear that the market is working efficiently. The reason is that IP addresses are allocated in blocks, and fragmenting the big IP allocation table makes it more difficult to manage it. For technical reasons, each allocation needs to be a square in the table. Thus, if a square is partially unused, it can only be split in multiple squares, increasing their number. Routers need to keep each possible square in memory, and their multiplication slows routing. And as IP addresses are privately owned and managed, there is no way to control this negative externality.

Benjamin Edelman and Michael Schwarz propose a market mechanism that should make the allocation of IP addresses more efficient. They suggest a "spartan rule:" in each bilateral trade, one of the two traders is designated as "extinguished," i.e., as prohibited from trading with other extinguished ones. As one can be extinguished only once, this implies that the number of cuts N in the IP table is limited to the number of initial holders of IP blocks. The analysis is static and under certainty, implying that the implicit rental price of an IP is zero as long as there is still a free one. But with the proposed rule, I do not see how one could necessarily reach exhaustion after the N cuts. It all depends on the initial allocation: one can end up with free IP addresses and no possible moves. In addition, once we add uncertainty and dynamics, there is going to be strategic behavior as being extinguished is a potentially costly absorbing state. I am thus not convinced of the arguments in this paper.

Of course, the easiest would be for everyone to switch to IPv6, which would give a sufficient number of IP addresses to last for a long time. But IPv6 devices cannot communicate with IPv4 devices (large scale IPv4 to IPv6 translation is cumbersome), which gives little incentive to switch until there is substantial critical mass. In other words, another situation like Y2K is approaching, and nobody has an incentive to do something about it. The more efficient market allocation will delay this, but also will make it even more urgent when it happens, because more addresses will need to switch, and they will have less time for it.

The Internet makes you happy

We have previous established that the Internet, contrarily to conventional wisdom, makes people more social. Does this also mean that people with Internet access are happier? Of course, one should take into account that those without Internet, at least nowadays, are likely to face hardships like low income and education.

Thierry Pénard, Raphaël Suire and Nicolas Poussing do such an analysis for Luxembourg and find indeed that Internet users are happier, especially among those with lower incomes. This is also true when taking into account the intensity of Internet use. This implies that making the Internet accessible to lower socio-economic classes can improve welfare, possibly significantly. Of course, one has to take with a grain of salt studies of happiness based on surveys that ask for subjective self-evaluations. That grain of salt may be bigger when one considers who small Luxembourg is. The approach then becomes similar to the randomized experiments in the development literature where results for a small set of villages are difficult to apply to other contexts. Yet, Luxembourg is surprisingly diverse, so maybe these results are generalizable. Readers, you can now safely that you are now happier from being on the Internet and reading this.

Public consumption and the business cycle

One aspect of government purchases the current crisis has highlighted is how volatile they can be. Quite obviously, they are influenced by politics, to the point of complete reversal between massive spending and severe belt-tightening within months as in the US and the UK. But there could also be a more systematic component that is linked to the business cycle. After all, the government may be trying to improve the welfare of its constituents and for example substitute public consumption for lacking private consumption, or the same for investment.



Ruediger Bachmann and Jinhui Bai look at this using an augmented real business cycle model. They claim that 25-40% of the variance of public consumption can be accounted for by shocks to total factor productivity once implementation lags and costs of public consumption, as well as taste shocks to public vs. private consumption. I am no particular fan of taste shocks, as they are the symptoms of a modeler who is giving up on trying to explain something and simply equates the error term in the Euler equation to a shock. Then much is driven by how this shock is calibrated, in this case to match a four year electoral cycle and some data moments. When I think about shocks in this context, I think indeed about who is in power to decide on public expenditures. But that is not completely exogenous. Indeed, the state of the economy has an impact on who gets elected or reelected. And this can be calibrated without trying to match the data moments one is trying to explain.

Public pensions are not sustainable, even in Norway

By now, everyone must be aware that populations are getting older and that this puts some serious strain on pension systems. Unless one plans far ahead or is blessed with substantial sustained growth, some problems in financing retirement will appear. But there must be some place that is going to do fine, say a country with a forward-thinking government, a recently reformed pension system, a well managed endowment of natural resources and a small and smart population, like Norway. Right?

Wrong, say Christian Hagist, Bernd Raffelhüschen, Alf Ering Risa and Erling Vårdal. To come to this conclusion, they use generational accounting, which measures the fiscal sustainability of the public sector and in particular the publicly funded retirement pensions. The latter went this year through a significant reform, which includes pension indexation below wage growth, benefits adjusted to be actuarially fair if life expectancy increases further, and work incentives for elderly. It turns out the pension reform has helped substantially for the sustainability, about as much as the presence of the endowment of oil and natural gas. But that is not going to be enough, even with higher oil prices and an exceptionally well managed petroleum wealth. And for those hoping that future growth of the economy or higher fertility would help, well at least in the case of Norway this would barely help. To close the gap, a 17% increase in taxes would be needed, and they are already very high in this country. So, if Norway cannot make it, how could countries with inactive governments and little or poorly managed endowments make it?

The Internet did not raise a generation of loners

The image of the basement-dwelling World-of-Warcraft-playing loner is often shown as an example of the adverse impact of the Internet on social capital and in particular social interactions. Whether this is true is not so obvious, as the Internet also makes possible social interactions that could not exist before, as this blog shows in a limited way.

Stefan Bauernschuster, Oliver Falck and Ludger Woessmann study the impact of broadband Internet on social capital using a natural experiment in Eastern Germany. There, some choice by the telecommunications provider resulted in 11% of East German households to be on OPAL lines instead of DSL, which better supports high speeds. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel, they measure social capital with the frequency of going out, visiting friends and performing volunteer work. They find that Internet access has no visible impact on social capital. To the contrary, for children it seems to enhance social capital, possibly because it makes them aware of new opportunities to interact in real life. This is in stark contrast with television use, which has many times been shown to be detrimental to social capital, likely because it is a one-way communication, while the Internet can build two-way communication.

State-owned banks in the US?

Many countries have state operated banks that support local development or other objectives that deviate somewhat from those of usual for-profit banks. No such institution exists in the US except for the Bank of North Dakota.

Yolanda Kodrzycki and Tal Elmatad study the Bank of North Dakota in the perspective of the feasibility of a similar bank in Massachusetts. They find that the BND is not a typical bank. While it favors local development, it rarely does so directly, but rather by helping local banks. It thus encourages a network of small and local banks, something that does not quite seem efficient to me. The BND was, however, not particularly useful in periods of crisis, like the agricultural crisis of the 1980s, because it also had financing difficulties. All in all, the bank of North Dakota is very different from state banks abroad, which offer all customer services like private banks and thus help regulate through competition some the excesses of private banking. The BND looks much more like existing development corporation that exist in most if not all US states. If Massachusetts just wants to em ulate North Dakota, it does not seem worth the large cost of the initial bond issue, especially in the current economics context.